HA425 Unit 8 Seminar Option 2

Quote of the week

George Bernard Shaw “Progress is impossible without change; and those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything.”

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Remember the motivation

What is your Motivator?

Last week…

Let’s start with a review!

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Week 7 Objectives

Identify the strategies for learning

Describe the transformational model and how it differs from the professional model

List the elements of social marketing

Examine the application of social marketing in health care CQI

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Week 7 Discussion

For last week’s discussion you were asked to respond to one of the three questions provided

Key Takeaways:

Social marketing is a way to promote public health and prevent serious diseases and chronic conditions

There is a business case for quality – medical errors are expensive!

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Week 7 Assignment

This assignment asked that you prepare a PowerPoint presentation on customer satisfaction efforts

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Keeping patients happy is necessary – especially in highly competitive areas where they have options

Customer satisfaction efforts can help to reduce the chance for medical errors

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Why it matters

Social marketing efforts are necessary for CQI from a public health standpoint. Patients who do not take care of their health tend to develop more serious and chronic conditions that could have been prevented. A lot of what we don’t do today can increase our risk of developing these conditions in the future.

Medical errors are expensive due to litigation and even if the facility were to win the case there are still expensive legal fees. This makes a strong business case for CQI in healthcare.

This week…

Summarize the changes in professional education based on the adoption of CQI

Explain how nursing are pivotal in the quality improvement arena

Examine how CQI has changed the practice of primary care

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What we will read

In Chapter 9 you will learn about the various countermeasures that we can implement in order to prevent medical errors before they occur. This ties back to our reading on the various models for quality improvement such as Six Sigma or the PDSA.

What we will do…

Engage in the discussion – for this discussion you are asked to respond to one of three assigned questions

Complete the weekly assignment – you will be summarizing the given article – no specific requirement is provided but I would recommend 3 paragraphs

Note – unit 9 is next week so look ahead to the capstone project!

Writing Tips, Resources & Such

Vary your sentence structure – don’t start every sentence with the same word

Avoid redundancy

Stick to what you know – don’t try to use terms you don’t fully understand or research them first

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Books worth reading are worth re-reading.– Holbrook Jackson

https://www.onlinecolleges.net/for-students/academic-writing-guide/

BIG IDEAS

Todd’s 30,000 foot view of the material…and other random observations, thoughts, and experiences…

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Summarize the changes in professional education based on the adoption of CQI

It is easy to see the changes – look at this class. Prior to the adoption of CQI, there would not have been a quality improvement class as part of a healthcare program.

Most, if not all, healthcare programs require that those looking to work on both the administrative and clinical side take a quality improvement course to understand the impact of their contributions and efforts.

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Explain how nursing are pivotal in the quality improvement arena

There are several reasons that nurses are pivotal in CQI.

Communication – they are typically the first point of contact with patients and thus they may receive information from the patient that can help to improve quality. It is up to the nurse to relay that information to the right person.

Delivery – just like a physician they deliver healthcare services. Anyone who is involved in the delivery of healthcare services must be involved in CQI as we need a complete picture.

Experience – nurses are part of the patient’s experience and as we have discussed the quality of care is not measured just by outcomes, but also their experience.

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Examine how CQI has changed the practice of primary care

CQI has been both a pro and a con to primary care.

Pro – it is a pro because providers continually evaluate their processes and work to improve patient outcomes.

Con – due to the fear of making mistakes and quality errors leading to litigation providers have shifted to ‘defensive medicine’. This involves recommending additional tests or treatment that is not necessarily needed in order to protect themselves in a legal case.

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Video Fieldtrip

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Todd’s Take

No one is perfect – even highly trained physicians and surgeons

Continuing education is necessary for quality improvement

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v= https://www.ted.com/talks/atul_gawande_how_do_we_heal_medicine

DB Review

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Week 8 Deep Dive

Assignment Review

Discussion

Due ByWord CountResearch Requirements
Initial PostSaturday 11:59pm Eastern Time200 – recommended1 – minimum
Follow Up Posts (2)Tuesday 11:59pm Eastern Time50 – recommendedAs Needed

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Read the book and do the research BEFORE posting. We are all watching!

Use In Text Citations or you cannot receive credit for the research- no exceptions. What you think matters but that alone cannot meet the expectations of analysis and critical thinking at the college level.

Discussion Tips

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You are asked to respond to one of the following questions:

Discuss the role of outcome in assessment of quality performance.

Define quality in health care and discuss its domains and dimensions.

Discuss the components of a comprehensive performance measurement framework.

Do not forget your citations. If you do not have citations then I have no way of knowing how you used the reference(s) listed.

Start with the announcement. I have provided two additional resources for this discussion.

Don’t just rely on what is given to you in the classroom – do your own research as this is an opportunity to broaden your knowledge.

Assignment

Due ByPage RequirementResearch Requirements
AssignmentTuesday 11:59pm Eastern Time1000 words3 minimum

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After reading the case you will need to respond to the following:

List the major concepts within the article and explain the positive outcomes in the two case studies.

Explore how quality improvement programs could be systematically used in public health systems and explain the goals, values, and vision that should be considered in implementing such programs.

Consider the future, after such programs have been created and findings have been determined and how to ensure that the findings are implemented and followed in public health and public health policy in the future.

Assignment Resource

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Did you review my announcement?

Below is a direct link to the article you need to review:

https://www.rwjf.org/en/library/research/2010/07/multistate-learning-collaborative-.html

In my announcement I have shared the direct link to the resource you are reviewing – please use this as if you indicate you cannot locate it I will refer you back here

There may be some confusion regarding the title of the article. The instructions refer to the article’s original title. However, the RWJ recently updated the article and thus the title.

The purpose of this assignment is to read and summarize the article and then conduct research on other quality improvement efforts in public health.

You do not need to do outside research beyond what is included in the article for question 1 but the other 2 questions should have supporting research

The two ‘cases studies’ refer to any of the multistate learning collaboratives. The first is listed on page 6, the second is covered on page 7, and the third is on page 9. You can discuss any 2 of these 3.

TIME MANAGEMENT TIP

Consider where your time goes each day – how can you use it more efficiently and effectively?

Don’t waste time!

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Competencies!

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CAREER CONNECT

Have you determined your core competencies? These come from both education and experience – they matter!

Place your screenshot here

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LEADERSHIP & YOU

Dr. Kotter discusses creating a vision for change within an organization – leaders are always looking for ways to better themselves!

Let’s review…

Don’t wait!

Start looking at your assignment today – read the article now!

Follow the Late Policy- I do!

Work can be accepted up to 14 days with a 10% penalty for the first 7 days it is late and a 20% penalty if it is 8-14 days late.

Random Thought

If you don’t understand a term – do more research!

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Assignment

For this week’s assignment you will be reading and summarizing an article

Discussion

For this week’s discussion you will respond to one of three assigned questions.

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THANKS!

Any questions?

You can connect with me at:

Office/primary contact – 541.583.0178

Mobile – 505.908.1979 (no texting)

rkane@purduegl obal.edu

toddkane.youcanbook.me

toddkane.com

Credits

Special thanks to all the people who made and released these awesome resources for free:

Presentation template by SlidesCarnival

Photographs by Startupstockphotos

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Jobless Claims Jumped Last Week

Initial claims, a proxy for layoffs across the U.S., increased to 253,000, the highest level since Sept. 30

By 

Harriet Torry and 

Sarah Chaney

Jan. 31, 2019 8:33 a.m. ET

WASHINGTON—The number of Americans filing applications for new unemployment benefits rose sharply last week, although claims filed by federal employees ticked down during the fourth week of a monthlong partial government shutdown.

Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs across the U.S., increased by 53,000 to a seasonally adjusted 253,000 in the week ended Jan. 26, the Labor Department said Thursday. That was the highest level for initial claims since Sept. 30, 2017.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected 215,000 new claims last week. Claims for the previous week were revised to 200,000. That still marked the lowest level since 1969, despite the upward revision.

The jump in claims could be due to several factors, including a shorter workweek due to the Martin Luther King public holiday. The headline jobless claims number doesn’t include federal employees, who file for unemployment benefits under a different system, although the number would include contractors potentially impacted by the federal government shutdown.

The four-week moving average of claims, a steadier measure, rose last week by 5,000 to 220,250.

Thursday’s report showed the number of claims workers made for longer than a week increased by 69,000 to 1,782,000 in the week ended Jan. 19. The figure, also known as continuing claims, is reported with a one-week lag.

The report also shed further light on how some federal employees responded to the partial government shutdown, which ended on Jan. 25.

Federal employees file under a separate program than regular state programs. Federal claims are reported with a one-week lag.

For the week ended Jan. 19, the fourth week of the partial government shutdown, 14,739 federal employees filed for first-time benefits. That was down from 25,419 in the prior week. Claims by federal workers aren’t adjusted for seasonality.

More broadly, the U.S. labor market is tight, leaving businesses reluctant to let workers go. The unemployment rate was 3.9% in December, and nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 312,000, the Labor Department said in early January. That compared with the average gain of 215,000 a month over the previous five years.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect the unemployment rate in January held steady at 3.9%, and employers added 170,000 new jobs. The Labor Department will release the jobs report for January on Friday.

Economy Notches 100th Straight Month of Increased Employment

Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 304,000 in January

By 

Eric Morath

Updated Feb. 1, 2019 10:12 a.m. ET

WASHINGTON—Tested in January by a 35-day government shutdown, market volatility and uncertainty about global growth, the U.S. labor market passed with high marks, notching its 100th straight month of increased employment and sustaining robust wage growth.

Nonfarm payrolls increased a seasonally adjusted 304,000 in January, the Labor Department said Friday. The gain was well above last year’s average monthly job growth—showing most private-sector businesses shrugged off the shutdown and kept on hiring. Meanwhile, wages rose at better than a 3% rate from a year earlier for the sixth straight month, revised figures showed, extending the best pay improvements since the recession ended in 2009.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.0% last month from 3.9% in December. The Labor Department said the shutdown caused thousands of federal workers to be counted as on temporary layoff, contributing to the uptick. The rate has edged up the past two months since touching a 49-year low of 3.7% last fall.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected 170,000 new jobs in January and a 3.9% unemployment rate.

Century Mark

Job growth continued in January, with nonfarm payrolls adding the most jobs in a month since last February.

“Payrolls crushed expectations,” Omair Sharif, economist at Société Générale, wrote in a note to clients. “Not bad for an economy that is supposedly softening.”

Revised figures show employers added 222,000 jobs in December and 196,000 jobs in November, a net downward revision of 70,000.

While more than 300,000 federal workers were furloughed, meaning not reporting to work during much of January, they didn’t impact the count in the payroll survey because they received back pay. Federal employment increased by 1,000 during the month.

But since those workers didn’t report to work at all during the survey week, the week that includes the 12th of the month, many were counted as unemployed due to temporary layoff, in a separate survey of households that determines the unemployment rate. That caused the jobless rate to rise to the highest level since June 2018.

Federal workers who worked without receiving their paychecks as scheduled were counted as employed in both surveys.

Outside of the government, private-sector payrolls rose by 296,000. That is well above average gain in recent years, suggesting businesses largely shrugged off any impact from the 35-day shutdown ended Jan. 25. The Labor Department remained open because it was among the agencies funded by Congress earlier in 2018.

Hiring last month increased in nearly every major category. The leisure and hospitality sector, including restaurants, added 74,000 employees. Construction firms hired 52,000. The manufacturing, health-care and retail sectors also added jobs. Employment declined slightly in the information sector. Local and state governments added 7,000 jobs.

The labor market has been a pillar of stability during the economic expansion, with employers adding jobs every month since October 2010. The streak is more than twice as long as the next longest such stretch on record, the 48 months concluding in June 1990.

During much of those 100 months wage growth was weak, but gains improved in the second half of last year. In January, average hourly earnings for all private-sector workers increased 3 cents to $27.56 an hour. Hourly wages rose by 10 cents in December. The average workweek in January was unchanged at 34.5 hours.

The labor market’s relative strength stands in contrast to signs the economy may be cooling.

The Federal Reserve indicated Wednesday that it was done raising interest rates for now, after lifting its benchmark rate four times last year.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, in a news conference Wednesday, raised concerns about slowing growth in major foreign economies, particularly China and Europe, and about the elevated uncertainty due to Brexit, ongoing trade negotiations and the effects from the government shutdown.

“Like many forecasters, we still see sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor-market conditions, and inflation near 2% as the likeliest case,” he said. “But the crosscurrents I mentioned suggest the risk of a less-favorable outlook.”

Some major U.S. companies, including Apple Inc. and Caterpillar Inc., recently reported disappointing profits. But other firms, including Facebook Inc. and Amazon.com Inc.,posted record profits. Those gains alongside strong results from banks and smaller companies helped propel the best January gain for stocks in 30 years.

Friday’s jobs report included benchmark revisions, which incorporate payroll data from tax records. The total nonfarm employment level for March 2018, the benchmark month, was revised down by 1,000 to 148.28 million. But for all of last year, employers added 2.674 million jobs, and upward revision from 2.638 million. Monthly seasonally adjusted data was revised back to January 2014.

The report also showed a broader measure of unemployment, including those too discouraged to look for work, plus Americans stuck in part-time jobs but who want to work full-time, rose to 8.1% in January from 7.6% the prior month. The rate, known as the U-6, was the highest since February 2018. The rate remains elevated compared with last time the headline unemployment rate stayed near 4%, suggesting there may still be some slack in corners of the labor market.

While unemployment is near a historic low, the labor-force participation rate is still only modestly above multidecade lows touched in 2015. Friday’s report showed the share of American adults working or looking for work rose to 63.2%, up a half percentage point from a year earlier.

With just a small share of Americans out of work but seeking jobs, and the labor force growing only slowly, some employers have had difficulty filling job openings. Separate Labor Department data show the number of job openings exceeds the number of unemployed Americans. Prior to last year, that had not occurred in nearly two decades of records.

10 years after the Great Financial Crash: Economics needs more than ‘Reformation’

Steve Keen

Published time: 28 Dec, 2017 16:15

The only way to avoid future financial crashes is to revolutionize economics because catastrophic turmoil is built into the current system.

A year ago, I was looking forward to 2017 as the tenth anniversary of an event that mainstream “neoclassical” economists said couldn’t happen: the global financial crisis which kicked off in 2007. You’d have thought the epoch would have presented a chance to reflect on the past, but it turned out the reflection on that event by the economics profession and the financial press was minimal: it was an event they’d rather forget than commemorate.

There was only trivial coverage of the anniversary in the mainstream media. For instance, the UK media could have made a big song and dance of it being ten years since the collapse of Northern Rock since it was the first bank run in Britain for 150 years. But there were only a couple of light articles in the Financial Times (“ In charts : UK banking ten years after Northern Rock”; “ Ten years after Northern Rock : has UK banking changed?”) a fluff piece by BBC TV—in which I was interviewed, but not understood ( “BBC Business Live interview on 10th anniversary of Northern Rock” )—and a smattering of coverage elsewhere.

Because learning lessons from history now seems to be so last century!

Thus, just as it was only the rebel economists like me who saw the crisis coming, it was only the rebels who indeed commemorated it. One way we did was by latching on to another anniversary in 2017: it was 500 years since Martin Luther triggered the Reformation by nailing his 95 Theses to the door of All Saints Church in Wittenberg. Rather late in the year, some students suggested using this anniversary as a hook to call for a ‘Reformation of Economics.’

Future’s the past

I gladly took part in it, dressing up in a monk’s robe, speaking briefly (along with The Guardian’s Larry Elliott, and the prominent heterodox economists Vicki Chick, Mariana Mazzucato, and Kate Raworth), and then blue-tacking a hastily and committee-drafted 33 Theses to the entrance to the London School of Economics.

That event has garnered more critical reaction from mainstream economists than the tenth anniversary of the crisis itself, including Ben Chu’s recent piece in The Independent stating that “The economics profession does not need a ‘reformation’.”

I’m going to surprise Ben by agreeing with him. Economics doesn’t need a Reformation: it needs a scientific revolution, similar to that triggered by Copernicus’s publication of “On the Revolutions of the Heavenly Spheres” in 1543.

The astronomical orthodoxy when Copernicus published Revolutions was Ptolemy’s model, which put the Earth at the center of the Universe, with the Sun, Moon, planets, and stars rotating about it on perfect spheres called Deferents. However, their observed motion wasn’t perfectly circular, so Ptolemy offset the center of the Universe slightly from Earth itself, and added other elements to explain other anomalies—especially the apparent reversal of the direction of the planets. Here he had the brilliant idea of placing them on other circles (called Epicycles) which rotated on their Deferents so that sometimes they traveled east to west in the sky as seen from Earth, and other times west to east.

There was just one problem: this model of the Universe was fundamentally wrong. But this didn’t stop Ptolemaic astronomers because Ptolemy’s basic paradigm of circles on circles was capable of describing any path by any object in space. They spent their time devising and perfecting this paradigm, generating models which could predict the motion of the planets for centuries ahead.

Then along came Copernicus, with an initially less accurate (because he still thought that the planets had circular orbits) but fundamentally correct model, which put the Sun, and not the Earth, at the center of the Solar System.

This was the first great scientific revolution, and it inverted our understanding of the Universe: rather than the Sun orbiting the Earth, the Earth orbited the Sun; rather than the stars being nearby, they were far away; and gravity, not God, told the “Heavenly Bodies” how to move.

The revolution in astronomy that Copernicus triggered with his fundamentally different paradigm took over a century. And Galileo played a key role here, by building the first serious telescope and observing four of Jupiter’s moons—which orbited Jupiter rather than the Earth. Faced with both a far simpler model, and observations that were serious anomalies in Ptolemy’s theory, the old way of thinking gave way to the new.

Slow coaches

This revolution didn’t come peacefully, and it wasn’t led by the Ptolemaic astronomers themselves, but by new entrants to the field—including, crucially, Isaac Newton, whose equations of motion provided a mathematical explanation for why the orbits of planets were elliptical rather than circular.

I hope that the revolution we need in economics takes less than a century, but if it is left to today’s neoclassical economists, it won’t happen at all. That revolution says the economy is not in or even near its equilibrium, but far from equilibrium; that cycles are caused not by exogenous shocks to a stable system, but by the inherent cyclicality of a complex system, where the whole is far more than the sum of its parts; and that money, rather than merely a “veil over barter” which can be ignored in macroeconomic modeling (Oh, you didn’t realize that mainstream economists don’t include banks, debt and money in their models?), is crucial to both the functioning of capitalism and its occasional financial crises, of which 2007 was merely the most recent example.

Instead, like Ptolemaic astronomers confronted with the existence of Jupiter’s moons, they’re busy adding “financial frictions” (the equivalent of Epicycles) to their equilibrium models, and disparaging critics in the belief that their framework is the only way one can do macroeconomic modeling.

Cross purposes

Balderdash. What they are instead illustrating is how little they know about alternative modeling approaches that dominate genuine sciences today.

I’m rather glad the students chose to pin their Theses to the door of the London School of Economics, because the most recent example of economists displaying ignorance while thinking they were being wise came from Professor Reis of the LSE, in a paper entitled“Is something really wrong with macroeconomics?” In defending economics against the criticism that it didn’t forecast the 2007 crisis, he argued that this didn’t look so bad when you compared economic forecasting to weather forecasting over the same time horizon:

“Comparing macroeconomic forecasts to forecasts of average temperature or precipitation over the next 1-5 years, as opposed to over the next few days, it is far from clear that economic forecasting is doing so poorly. (Reis 2017)”

This “killer comparison” actually shows how ignorant mainstream economists are of the modern complex systems techniques that have made meteorology so much more accurate than it was fifty years ago.

Meteorologists would justifiably laugh at Reis’s comparison—and would know instantly that he knew nothing about complex systems modeling. It is an ignorance he shares with the mainstream of the economics profession.

Let the revolution begin.

Economic paper

Guidelines for Article Exploration Assignments:

TECHNICAL REQUIREMENTS:

· 1-inch margins all around (we will measure, YOU must make sure that your printer is printing correctly, this is not my or the grader’s responsibility, it is yours.)

· Please use MLA formatting for your references.

· Use a clear, readable, font such as Verdana, Calibri, Tahoma or Arial, etc. Please be consistent and use the same font throughout.

· Use black text on a white background. Avoid colored backgrounds or text in a color other than black unless you have special permission to use them (for example, if you’re dyslexic).

· Use 12-point font for the body of your assignment.

· Use double spacing, only one-line space between paragraphs

· Left-justify your work (also known as left-aligned).

· Use bold for headings. Not underlining or italics.

· You must have 50 FULL lines of text at the minimum and 100 FULL lines of text at the maximum.

· You must have a(n) Title, Introduction, Thesis Statement, Transitions, Topic Sentences, Body Paragraphs, Conclusion, and References Page(s).

· As well as a reference page, parenthetical references are required within the text of the paper. The reference page(s) DO NOT count towards your 50-100 FULL lines of text.

· Graphs and Tables are required for the Article Understanding assignments. These (Graphs and Tables) should each have their own page with a title (on the top of the page) and a description of no less than two sentences (below the table or graph). These pages DO NOT count towards your 50-100 FULL lines of text, and should be located after the conclusion and before the references.

· All papers should include a header on the front pageThis header DOES NOT count toward your 50-100 FULL lines of text. It should include:

· Your name

· Student ID#

· The Course Number

SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS:

· You cannot use contractions

· UP TO (no more than) one paragraph (10 lines) may summarize the article(s) itself (themselves).

· Must have relevant charts/figures/equations.

· Must have reference page (4 references) and in text parenthetical references.

· Must have policy implications or suggestions in the conclusion of the essay.

Your essays should focus on one of the following major topics:

Macro:

Economic Growth; Unemployment, Inflation; Monetary Policy; or Fiscal Policy.

Micro:

Demand, Supply, and Equilibrium; Elasticity; Consumer Demand Theory; Theory of Production; Costs of Production; Opportunity Cost; Market Structure; Competition; Game Theory; Labor; Welfare; or Economics of Information.

My Thoughts:

You are writing about an idea in the article (many are listed above), and you are using the article as a baseline reference point for the overarching idea.

What are the policy implications or suggestions of the idea(s) in the article(s)?

Your supporting paragraphs should use your technical knowledge of economics in order to support or refute the original claims of the article, or claims made by your own personal opinions. This means that you have to take some time (space: 1 or 2 sentences) to talk about the theoretical economic model involved (labor market, goods market, AD-AS, etc.).

CBO: Shutdown Will Cost Government $3 Billion of Projected 2019 GDP

The deficit is expected to total $897 billion in 2019

By 

Kate Davidson

Updated Jan. 28, 2019 10:38 a.m. ET

WASHINGTON—The partial government shutdown that ended Friday will cost the government about $3 billion and will subtract about 0.4 percentage point from annualized gross domestic product growth in the first quarter, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Monday.

In new estimates of the shutdown’s impact, the CBO said the shutdown dampened economic activity mainly because of the roughly 380,000 furloughed workers who weren’t contributing to GDP, as well as the delay in federal spending on goods and services and the reduction in aggregate demand.

The estimates, which the CBO cautioned are highly uncertain, don’t incorporate other indirect negative effects of the shutdown, such as businesses that couldn’t obtain federal permits or access loans while the government was partially closed.

“Such factors were probably beginning to lead firms to postpone investment and hiring decisions,” the CBO said, adding that risks to the economy were becoming increasingly significant as the shutdown continued.

“Although their precise effects on economic output are uncertain, the negative effects of such factors would have become increasingly important if the partial shutdown had extended beyond five weeks,” the report said.

The CBO estimated the 35-day shutdown, which was the longest in U.S. history, reduced fourth-quarter GDP by $3 billion, or 0.1%. The level of real GDP in the first quarter, which ends March 30, is expected to be $8 billion lower than it would have been, or 0.2% lower.

Economic growth is expected to be higher in subsequent quarters this year, as the economy makes up some of the lost ground. But the CBO estimates about $3 billion—or 0.02% of projected annual GDP in 2019—will never be recovered.

In estimates prepared before the shutdown, the agency projected the economy would grow 2.3% in 2019.

President Trump on Friday reached a deal with congressional leaders to reopen the government for three weeks while Republicans and Democrats negotiate over border security provisions in a new spending bill.

Although a shutdown temporarily halts government operations, previous shutdowns have imposed significant direct and indirect costs, including billions of dollars in back pay, lost output by federal workers and weaker economic growth.

Two separate shutdowns in fiscal year 1996 cost the government about $1.4 billion over 26 days, the Office of Management and Budget said at the time. The 16-day shutdown in 2013 cost roughly $2 billion in retroactive pay to furloughed employees, plus billions more in lost economic output, according to OMB.

Kevin Hassett, the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said Wednesday the U.S. economy may not grow at all in the first quarter if the shutdown continued through March. But he added that the economy should recover any lost ground once the government reopens.

The CBO also estimated the budget deficit would total $897 billion in 2019, and pushed back its estimate for when budget deficits will exceed $1 trillion to 2022. Last year, the agency saw deficits topping $1 trillion next year, as government outlays continue to outstrip revenue growth.

The shift mainly reflected lower projected spending this year on emergencies, such as hurricanes and wildfires, as well as lower projected interest rates, which translates to lower expected interest costs on government debt.

The CBO also projected federal deficits would average $1.2 trillion a year over the next decade, or 4.4% as a share of gross domestic product, much higher than the 2.9% average over the past 50 years. Government debt is projected to swell from 78% of GDP in 2018 to 93% at the end of 2029.

Economic growth is slowing down

Globalization contributes many advantages to the global economy. The global boom is the result from globalization. Economy had a rapid growth after 1990s. But the globalization also carries some problems to the economic. As a result, the economic growth is slowing down in recent years.

In the article The steam has gone out of globalization, the author states that the globalization is leading our economy to a new era called “slowbalisation”. The economy has a robust growth during the golden age of the globalization in 1990-2010. But the economic growth rate become slower in recently years because the benefits from the globalization is almost used up. The cost of shipping has stop falling, multinational firms find a hard time survive in both global markets and the local markets. Meanwhile activity is shifting towards service, which is harder to trade across the borders. Those are the factors cause the slowbalisation. And globalization remains many issues that slow the economy down in the recent years.

First, the decline of the total investment in the market caused the economic growth to slow down. Investment is a very significant factor that effect the long-term aggregate supply. If the long-term aggregate supply doesn’t increase, the rise in the aggregate demand will cause inflation but not economic growth. Moreover, the high geopolitical risk makes firms unwilling to put investment in countries and industries that carry high risk. In the article, “global value of cross-border investment by multinational companies sank by about 20% in 2018” (Slowbalisation, page 2 para 3). And the decline in the payoff of from the investment also slow down the economy. Globalization bring the production cost significantly lowered than before. But after the cost of shipping has stop falling and the labor cost can not be reduced, firms can not lower the production cost anymore therefore lower the total payoff from investment. This means a country need to put more money in the investment in order to reach the same economic growth as before, which is not sustainable (Ip).

Since the benefits from the globalization become less significant, trade conflict between two countries become more ordinary in recent years that reduce the chance of cooperation in economic and slow down the economic. Country like the United States is now putting more attention to the domestic economic growth rather than the global economic growth. Trade conflict between U.S. and China is the trigger for the latest slowing (Ip). Moreover, the high tariff set by the U.S. government even hurt its small domestic business because of the increasing cost in production (Guo). As a result, trade behavior between countries will become more regional.

The divergent monetary policies between America and the rest of the world will hurt the economy in the emerging markets. The Federal Reserve has already raised the interest rate 8 times while the European Central Bank has no plan to rise their interest rate (The world economy, page 1 para 3). And China on the other hand, is having relaxed monetary policy in order to offset the outcome from trade war. The current situation that strength the dollar in the world and makes it harder for emerging markets to repay their debts (The world economy, page 1 para 3). A measurement indicates that emerging markets account for 59% of world’s output. Therefore, a financial crisis in the emerging markets will definitely slowdown the global economy and even lead to a recession.

In conclusion, decline in investment, trade conflict and the crisis in the emerging markets are some of the problems carried by the globalization when its benefits the economy less than before. And the global economy is stagnating because of that.

measures of global integration

From this chart we can see eight measures of GDP are in retreat or stagnating.

Works Cited

Ip, Greg. “The Global Boom, Barely Begun, May Be Over.” The Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones & Company, 24 Jan. 2019.

“The Steam Has Gone out of Globalisation.” The Economist, The Economist Newspaper, 24 Jan. 2019.

“The next Recession.” The Economist, The Economist Newspaper, 11 Oct. 2018.

“Globalisation Has Faltered.” The Economist, The Economist Newspaper, 24 Jan. 2019.

Yuwei Guo. “slowbalisation” Economic Rhetoric: Using Economic Theory and Empirical Evidence in Arguing Policy. UC Santa Cruz. Santa Cruz. 23 January 2019. Lecture.

Mock exam type question based on Dyson moves to Singapore for 1 February 2019

The text from the Dyson Moves to Singapore case study is vital for this question. Please read carefully the case study and use British accent not American as the teacher wants to see just British accent . then answer the question please it has to be answered professionally covering everything needed …. I need this work in 10 hours is very important as I can’t revise it after so u should do it perfectly from first time ..

Write, in essay form, an answer. Read the case study below…..One page answer covering everything regarding the question. Be sure that you develop as many argument as possible to answer the question .

Question:

Identify and explain the economic changes which have encouraged James Dyson to move Dyson’s headquarters from the UK to Singapore. Develop as many arguments as possible, taking into account international economic climates and conditions.

In conclusion, decide if you think Dyson’s decision is appropriate and explain your reasoning.

Why is Dyson moving to Singapore? It’s not just Brexit

James Dyson may be a leading Brexiteer, but moving the Dyson HQ to Singapore is complicated. UK skill shortages, tax breaks, and other incentives will have made the upheaval appealing

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By  KATIA MOSKVITCH

Thursday 24 January 2019

Getty Images / Larry Busacca / Staff

Dyson is one of the UK’s biggest engineering and innovation success stories. Now, the vacuum cleaner company turned electric car entrepreneur is moving its headquarters out of the UK to Singapore – even though founder and owner James Dyson was one of the country’s most vocal Brexiteers. So what gives?

The company’s chief executive Jim Rowan insists that the move has nothing to do with Brexit or the UK’s tax regime. Instead, he says, Dyson wants to be “future-proof for where we see the biggest opportunities.”

“We have seen an acceleration of opportunities to grow the company from a revenue perspective in Asia,” Rowan said. “We have always had a revenue stream there and will be putting up our best efforts as well as keeping an eye on investments.”

But that’s very much at odds with James Dyson’s glowing forecasts for the economic opportunities in a post-Brexit Britain. Clearly, his company believes that Britain is falling short on the opportunity front. For economics professor Jonathan Portes at King’s College, the case is clear-cut: the move illustrates “why we should not take James Dyson’s views on Brexit seriously.”

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Four months ago, in October 2018, and after eight years of negotiations, Singapore and the European Union signed not only a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), but also an Investment Protection Agreement plus a framework agreement on closer partnership and cooperation. Come Brexit Day on March 29, should there be a “no deal” scenario, it will be easier to trade with the EU if you’re a Singaporean company, rather than a British outfit. Companies covered by the FTA will be trading with each other tariff-free. Already, Dyson does all its manufacturing in the Far East, mainly in Malaysia.

However Linda Lim, an economist at the University of Michigan specialising in doing business in South East Asia, argues that the FTA alone may not be the biggest reason for the Dyson move. If Dyson can win with its big bet on building electric vehicles, Singapore’s cost disadvantages will make it difficult for a niche car manufacturer to succeed, not least because of the transport costs and long turnaround time. All this “will be prohibitive, so Singapore-made cars just will not be price-competitive in EU markets, and certainly not in the UK itself, bar a separate UK-Singapore FTA.”

There are distinct advantages of being headquartered in Singapore, though. The city state provides tax incentives and benefits for companies that locate their global or regional HQ there. “A case in point is the US semiconductor company Broadcom, which had its global HQ in Singapore, while basically the vast majority of the leadership was in the US,” says Lim – although political pressure by the Trump administration ultimately forced Broadcom to ‘re-domicile’ to the United States.

Steve Keen, an economics professor at Kingston University and a keen Brexiteer himself, believes the Dyson exit has less to do with trade deals and more with UK skills shortages.

James Dyson on batteries, electric cars and the future of design

Design

James Dyson on batteries, electric cars and the future of design

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By BEN GARTSIDE

“Dyson gets access to Asian markets and Asian industrial engineering skills,” Keen says. The UK is believed to have an engineering skill shortage, which Keen says is linked to former prime minister Margaret Thatcher’s focus on financial services. “The upshot is that the UK simply doesn’t have the engineers and skilled machinists that Dyson’s technology requires, whereas Asia has them in abundance.”

Combine that with Dyson innovation, starting with its vacuum cleaner technology and now more recently its unconventional solid-state battery technology, and you have the winning ingredients, says Keen. “There’s also a marketing angle. A Ford EV is ‘meh’ next to a Tesla, because of Musk’s justified image as an innovator. A Dyson is just as Wow! on that front as a Tesla, given Dyson’s reputation as an innovator,” he argues. “Finding the engineers to implement a new design should be much easier in Singapore than in the UK.”

In practice the upheaval to Singapore is relatively minor. Rowan said none of Dyson’s 4,000 UK workers would lose their jobs and the company is planning on spending £200 million on new buildings in Hullavington, plus redeveloping its offices at its Malmesbury base. The company will be registered in Singapore and both its chief financial officer, Jorn Jensen, and legal officer Martin Bowen would relocate.

Lim believes that Dyson simply wants to focus its car business on Asia, and the logistics demand being close to these markets. “This is one industry where it makes economic and business sense to ‘produce where you sell’ in order to customise to local and regional consumer preferences, minimise transport and logistic costs and turnaround time, and so on,” she adds.

Singapore’s free port will also make it easy to hook into the deep automotive supply chains of Japan, Korea, China and Thailand. There will be instances where exporting makes sense, says Lim, but even the European and Japanese automakers that export to the US market have located most of their production in the US over the past 40 years.

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By STEPHEN ARMSTRONG

That’s all true, of course, but doesn’t answer why Dyson moves its headquarters out of the UK. After all, neither BMW, Mercedes nor Peugeot are in a rush to move their own headquarters closer to their big markets in North America or Asia. They are happy to remain in the world’s largest single market, regardless of where their factories are based.

Dyson’s decision to make electric cars in Singapore moves the company closer to the fastest growing market for electric vehicles – China – but that, says Lim, can’t quite explain the move either. China’s EV market is growing so fast thanks to government subsidies – but only for EVs produced locally, not overseas. “That’s why Tesla and other EV manufacturers have opened plants in China,” she says.

One of the big topics during the Brexit debate was immigration, and demands for clamping down on it. While the UK government tries to reduce the numbers, UK companies are already reporting shortages of skilled workers.

For Dyson, the company, this is in marked contrast to Singapore with its liberal immigration policy; for any company, it’s relatively easy to hire the talent it needs from anywhere in the world. Still, the talent that Dyson needs is scarce everywhere, even in the US, says Lim, so it’s not clear why such experts would want to relocate to Singapore, when they can find good jobs in larger markets, including the US and China.

The most critical motivator, thinks Lim, are investment incentives offered by the Singaporean government – tax breaks, various subsidies like R&D grants, state equity investments and loans. “These have not been and may not be disclosed, but given Singapore’s many disadvantages as a manufacturing location especially for automobiles, I can’t imagine that Dyson is investing there without some such incentives,” she adds.

Brian de Laine Produced 31 January 2019

4.5.1: Part I: G*Power Exercises: Estimation of Power Related Parameters Using G*Power:

1. Use G*Power to estimate the actual power under the following conditions:

·  Type of test: t-test

·  Statistical test: Means: Difference between two independent means (two groups)

·  Type of power analysis: Post hoc: Computer achieved power – given alpha level, sample size, and effect size

·  Tails: Two

·  Effect size: Medium effect size

·  Alpha level (prob): 0.05

·  48 participants in group 1; 60 participants in group 2.

1. 4.5.2: G*Power Short Answer Questions:

Using your G*Power Output “4.5.1 GPower Protocol Output”,(I WILL ATTACH IT TO THIS ASSIGNMENT, SEE ATTACH) answer the following questions related to the power analysis you just ran. Create a MSWord document and call it “4.5.2 Short Answer Questions” and save it as a deliverable for this exercise.

1. What type of statistical test did you just estimate power and sample size for?

2. What does a effect size of 0.5 mean and is this sufficient or this type of statistical test?

3. What power was obtained given these experimental parameters?

4. Was the sample size selected (48 for group 1 and 60 for group 2) sufficient based on the power obtained?

4.5.3: Write Up Your G*Power Results:

Write up your results in APA 6 format. Be sure to include the parameters of your test and an explanation of what each parameter means (type of test, statistical test, type of power analysis, tails, effect size, alpha level, power, and your calculated sample size). Write up your results and save your write up as “4.5.3 Results Write Up”.

Reports – 3 part assignment

PLEASE FOLLOW ALL DIRECTIONS – PLEASE NOTE THERE ARE 3 PARTS TO THIS ASSISGNMENT!

No plagiarism – please note that use of APA citation Methodology is required!!!

THERE IS A REPORT/PAPER TO EACH PART OF THIS ASSIGNMENT THAT MUST BE COMPLETED!

I DO CHECK FOR PLAGERISM!!!!

Format of the Project:

The Data Exercise must be posted to the LEO Student Assignments as a Attachments are limited to a maximum two files in doc, docx., xls. xlsx., or rtf. formats. OTHER FORMATS ARE NOT ACCEPTABLE, will not be reviewed or graded.

Please note that hand-written and scanned works, pdf. files, jpg. files, as well as files posted in google drive, will not be accepted or graded.

The paper should be written in APA style Research Paper format.

Please note that Use of APA Citation Methodology is required for all parts of the assignment

Written projects must be:

1. typed, double-spaced, in 12-point Times New Roman or Arial font, with margins no wider than one inch

1. have footnotes or endnotes, with correct citations

1. have a bibliography of sources used

1. include, for each entry, the author, title, city and state of publisher, publisher’s name, year, and page numbers

1. prepared using word processing software (Microsoft Word preferred), in a manner similar to the preparation of a written assignment for classroom submission

DATA EXERCISE #2

Consists of three parts

Part 1: The Unemployment Rate (weight 30% of the assignment grade)

Complete the following exercise

Visit the Bureau of Labor Statistics Web Site, www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm). Select Employment Situation Summary.

Write a report (1 – 2 pages double spaced) to answer the questions:

1. What month (and year) is summarized? What was the unemployment rate for that month? How does that rate compare with the rate in the previous month?

1. What were the unemployment rates for adult women, teenagers, blacks, Hispanics, and whites? How did these rates compare with those a month earlier?

1. What factors make it difficult to determine the unemployment rate?

1. Why is unemployment an economic problem?

1. What are the noneconomic effects of unemployment?

1. Who loses from unemployment?

1. Please analyze and discuss the significance of the data that you received for this Data exercise. Reflect on what you have learned from this exercise.

Part 2: The Inflation Rate (weight 30% of the assignment grade)

Complete the following exercise:

Visit the Bureau of Labor Statistics Web Site,

www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm). Select Consumer Price Index Summary.

Write a report (1 – 2 pages double spaced) to answer the questions:

1. What month (and year) is summarized? What was CPIU for that month?

1. What was the rate of inflation (percentage change in the CPIU) for the month? How does that rate of inflation compare with the rate in the previous month?

1. Which two categories of goods or services had the greatest price increase for the month?

1. Which two categories of goods or services had the lowest price increase (or greatest price decrease) for the month?

1. Who loses from inflation?

1. Please analyze and discuss the significance of the data that you received for this Data exercise. Reflect on what you have learned from this exercise.

Part 3: Unemployment Data by Labor Force Groups and Duration (40% of the project grade)  

Go to https://www.govinfo.gov/app/collection/erp

the home page of the Economic Report of the President.

Click on the last available Report, scroll down, and download individual tables as Excel.

1. Find unemployment data (Table B–12.—Civilian unemployment rate) for each year 2000 to present. Use four labor force groups: males, and females, in each case 16 to 19 years of age, versus 20 years of age or over.

1. Present the result in your project as a table.

1. Create one or more charts (line graph, bar graph, etc.).

1. Use the Economic Report of the President (Table B–13.—Unemployment by duration and reason) to find data on the duration of unemployment for each year 2000 to present.

1. Present the result in your project as a table.

1. Create one or more charts (line graph, bar graph, etc.).

Write a report (1 – 2 pages double-spaced) about the results you received.

In this paper consider, but do not be limited to the following:

1. Which years had the highest and lowest unemployment rates? How do the rates compare among these groups?

1. Compare the distribution of unemployment by duration over these years. Which years had the highest and lowest unemployment duration? What relationship, if any, do you find?

1. Demographic studies show that the proportion of teenagers and minorities in the U.S. population is likely to increase in the near future. In your opinion, what implications, if any, will this trend have on the natural rate of unemployment?

1. Please analyze and discuss the significance of the data that you received for this Data exercise. Reflect on what you have learned from this exercise.

Assignment 07 – 564 CT. Power point

· examine various viewpoints of the ethical debate related to profit in healthcare.

· How does profit in healthcare impact providers’ decisions? To what extent does profit in healthcare influence competition and pricing?

· Develop a PowerPoint presentation meeting the following structural requirements. Your presentation must:

· Be organized, using professional themes and transitions.

· Consist of five slides, not including the title and reference slides (seven total).

· Provide in each slide detailed speakers notes—a minimum of 100 words in length. Notes must draw from, and cite relevant reference materials.

· Provide support for your statements with in-text citations from a minimum of four scholarly articles. Two of these sources may be from the class readings, textbook, or lectures, but the others must be external.

· Follow APA writing standard